Strategic Seeding: Will Teams Aim to Avoid Pot 1 in the Olympics?

The Volleyball Nations League 2024 is not only the final stepping stone for teams aiming to secure a spot at the Paris 2024 Olympics but also their last chance to impact the FIVB world rankings. These rankings will determine the seeding across four pots for the group stages of the Olympics, with each group containing one team from each pot and ensuring no teams from the same pot compete against each other in the initial round.

Seeding Formula for Olympic Volleyball:

Pot 1: Host nation (France) + the top two teams in the world rankings.

Pot 2: The next three highest-ranked teams.

Pot 3: The subsequent three teams in the rankings.

Pot 4: The remaining three teams.

Currently, after week two of the VNL 2024, Türkiye (388.69), Brazil (382.13), and Poland (373.16) are the top three in the FIVB world rankings, well ahead of the fourth-placed Italy (358.51). This positions them as likely candidates to join France in Pot 1. Despite being the host and automatically placed in Pot 1, France ranks 19th globally with 167.11 points, making it one of the lower-ranked teams in the competition.

The seeding raises a strategic question: might it be more advantageous for teams to aim for Pot 2 or Pot 3 to potentially draw against the lower-ranked host, France, rather than other top-ranked teams?

In the pre-match press conference of week three pool 5 in VNL 2024 held in Hong Kong, coaches from the top three ranked teams shared their perspectives on this seeding dilemma.

Coach Lavarini of Poland dismissed the idea of gaming the rankings system. He stressed that his team approaches every match with unwavering dedication, focusing primarily on team development and learning opportunities, rather than concerning themselves with the nuances of Olympic seeding. This philosophy ensures that every game is treated with the seriousness it deserves, irrespective of the opponent’s rank.

Following a similar ethos, Coach Santarelli of Türkiye pointed to the volatility of world rankings to underscore his team’s focus. He recalled Türkiye’s rapid ascent in the rankings as an example of how quickly standings can change, emphasizing that their primary goal remains excelling in each match rather than manipulating their position for a potentially favorable Olympic draw. This approach helps maintain a focus on immediate goals and team performance without being distracted by the broader implications of rankings.

Echoing these sentiments, Coach Ze Roberto of Brazil highlighted his team’s commitment to finishing the Volleyball Nations League on a strong note and continuously improving. He clarified that they are not thinking about the Olympic Games at this stage, and as such their current priority does not include strategizing about pot placements. This approach keeps the team grounded and focused on the present, ensuring they are in the best possible form for both the league and the upcoming Olympics.

While discussions around strategic placements in Olympic seeding pots continue, the coaches’ responses underscore a commitment to the integrity of the sport and competitive excellence. This approach not only honors the spirit of the game but also ensures that athletes remain focused on what truly matters—excelling in every match they play.

(Reported by Boris CHUNG Bok Man)